CLIMATE CHANGE

INTRODUCTION

By Charles Rhodes, Xylene Power Ltd.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
The historical record indicates that during the period 950 AD to 1100 AD (the medieval warm period) the average temperature in the North Atlantic was significantly warmer than during the period 1500 AD to 1900 AD. During the medieval warm period Vikings colonized Greenland and Newfoundland. About 1200 AD the North Atlantic climate cooled and the occupants of these settlements either abandoned them or perished.

We are uncertain today as to the exact physical mechanism that caused the medieval warm period. We strongly suspect that this warming was a result of a decrease in the Earth's planetary albedo (solar reflectivity). This change in planetary albedo could have been caused by a change in atmospheric chemistry or by a change in the sun's emission of ionizing radiation. We have seen in the last few decades that a small increase in CFC's in the atmosphere has a profound effect on upper atmosphere ozone concentration which in turn affects the Earth's albedo at ultra-violet wavelengths, especially in polar regions.

During the 20th century there was a new cause of planetary warming which continues into the 21st century. This warming is caused by an on-going increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

Accurate measurements of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration have been made at Mauna Loa, Hawaii by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and others since 1958. These measurements are graphically presented below.

This graph shows an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration from 314.69 ppmv in 1958 to 386.36 ppmv in 2008.

If the present trend continues the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at Mauna Loa, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, will reach 550 ppmv, twice its historic level, before the year 2078. In major metropolitan areas, where there is ongoing local CO2 emission, the average CO2 concentration is well over 400 ppmv and is continuing to rise.

Today carbon dioxide (CO2) related warming is a life threatening problem, not because most people are not aware of it, but because most people in industrialized countries have no concept of the magnitude of its consequences or of the amount by which the combustion of fossil fuels must be reduced in order to prevent these consequences causing massive human mortality.

Accumulation of excess carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere reduces the Earth's infrared emissivity. The reduction in infrared emissivity causes an increase in the atmospheric temperature over dry land, causes net heat absorption by the oceans, causes increased evaporation per unit area from irrigated farm land and causes melting of otherwise permanent ice.

Net heat absorption by lakes and oceans causes a gradual increase in open water surface temperature. An increase in open water surface temperature causes an increase in the average atmospheric water vapor concentration, as shown by the following graph of saturated water vapor density as a function of temperature.

Since water vapor is also a greenhouse gas, the Earth's infrared emissivity is further reduced by the increase in average atmospheric water vapor concentration. The thermal effects of this additional reduction in emissivity are partially cancelled by formation of additional cloud cover, which slightly increases the Earth's reflectivity (albedo) in the solar spectrum. However, the net effect of the increase in average atmospheric water vapor concentration is to amplify the increase in atmospheric temperature over dry land that is directly caused by non-aqueous greenhouse gases. The total temperature increase over dry land is known as "global warming".

The increase in temperature over dry land causes an increase in soil evaporation rate per unit of cultivated land area. Since the supply of fresh water for crop irrigation is usually limited, an increase in evaporation rate per unit of cultivated land area causes a corresponding decrease in the cultivated land area. However, the number of received solar photons for performing photosynthesis per unit of cultivated land area decreases due to additional cloud cover, so the net effect of an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is a decrease in agricultural output due to reductions in both cultivated land area and number of received solar photons per unit area per unit time.

The problem of reduced agricultural output is further aggravated because the supply of fresh water for summer irrigation has diminished due to loss of mountain snowpacks and due to increased evaporation from open irrigation reservoirs. The resulting food shortage is further compounded by an increasing human population and by increasing use of agricultural products for biofuels as well as for food. Relatively few people in the industrialized countries realize that continuation of the present use of fossil fuels will result in world wide starvation.

Returning the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to its 1990 concentration of 354 ppmv requires an immediate decrease in the world wide fossil carbon dioxide emission rate to about 47.8% of the 2004 world wide fossil carbon dioxide emission rate. However, it is unreasonable to expect countries with below average per capita fossil carbon dioxide emission rates to achieve significant further fossil CO2 emission rate reductions when Canada and the USA have per capita fossil carbon dioxide emission rates that are about four times the per capita world average. The most significant fossil carbon dioxide emission reductions must come from the industrialized countries such as Canada and the USA. In order to return to 1990 atmospheric conditions the per capita fossil carbon dioxide emission rates from these two countries must be reduced nine fold to less than 11% of their 2004 fossil carbon dioxide emission rates.

Achieving the required world wide fossil carbon dioxide emission rate reductions will require abandonment of fossil carbon as a primary energy source and will require major human population reductions either by planned birth control, or by starvation, war and pestilence.

Very few governments are taking this issue seriously. In most cases politicians neither grasp the underlying physics nor the full consequences of failing to promptly make the public policy changes that are necessary to avert a global warming disaster. The existing political responses are at best half measures that may temporarily deceive the public but will not solve the problem. The catastrophic consequences of these inadequate political responses will be born by our children.

Lack of understanding of the science of global warming is no excuse. Our neighbouring planet Venus has an atmosphere that is almost entirely composed of carbon dioxide. The experimentally measured surface temperature on Venus is about 400 degrees C higher than it would be if Venus had a nitrogen/oxygen atmosphere similar to Earth. The influence of atmospheric carbon dioxide on surface temperature is unmistakeable, even to those who have no training in physics.

This web site presents the incontestable physical and mathematical relationships connecting solar irradiance, albedo, thermal emission, infrared gaseous absorption, atmospheric temperature, greenhouse effect, local warming and net heat capture along with related data gathered from outside air temperature records, laboratory, satelite and deep space probe instruments. The increase in ground level atmospheric temperature over dry land directly caused by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is quantified.

It is shown that a change in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration between time a and time b causes an emission temperature increase (Tab - Taa) over dry land in accordance with the equation:
Tab - Taa = Taa [[(Fta (1 - Frb)) / ((Ftb (1 - Fra))]^.25 - 1]
where:
Taa = emission temperature in degrees K at time a;
Tab = emission temperature in degrees K at time b;
Fta = infrared emissivity at time a;
Ftb = infrared emissivity at time b;
Fra = albedo (solar reflectivity) at time a;
Frb = albedo (solar reflectivity) at time b;
where the infrared emissivity Ft is a parameter that can be measured by a spacecraft borne instrument known as a Thermal Emission Spectrometer and where the albedo Fr is a parameter that can be determined via measurement of reflected solar power.

Numerical evaluation of this equation indicates that doubling the average atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration while holding the average atmospheric water vapor concentration constant (and hence Fr constant) causes an average ground level temperature increase over dry land of about 2.058 degrees C.

This temperature increase is amplified by an accompanying increase in average atmospheric water vapor concentration. The average atmospheric water vapor concentration is dependent on the average surface temperature of open water. When the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is doubled the accompanying increase in atmospheric water vapor concentration for an average open water temperature of 15 degree C causes a further 0.865 degree C temperature increase over dry land provided that the planetary albedo Fr remains constant. The resulting total temperature increase caused by doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is 2.923 degrees C.

The surface temperatures of Lake Ontario, Lake Erie and Lake Huron have all been further increased by use of these lakes as heat sinks for nuclear and coal fueled thermal electric generating stations. The resulting increase in open water surface temperature accounts for part of the 2.44 degree C average temperature increase from 1965 to 2005 recorded by Environment Canada at the Toronto International Airport. During this 40 year period the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii increased from 318.71 ppmv to 377.48 ppmv. Due to local sources of CO2, the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration over southern Ontario is significantly larger.

It is shown that a decrease in local albedo will also cause warming. The large average temperature increase experienced in northern Canada in recent years is in part due to a decrease in local albedo related to melting of snow and floating ice. The local albedo near the poles has been further reduced by a decrease in upper atmosphere ozone as a result of pollution by Chloro-Fluoro-Carbons (CFCs).

At this time this author is not aware of any readily available data that can easily be used to quantify the change in the Earth's planetary albedo in the ultra-violet range. Most of the astronomical planetary albedo measurements were done in the visible range. There have been measurements of atmospheric ozone concentration vs time and position, but converting those measurements into a quantified change in planetary albedo is a challenge.

It is further shown that if the future mass flow rate to the atmosphere Fc of carbon dioxide generated by combustion of fossil fuels is held constant then the ultimate world wide average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere (CO2) measured far from any CO2 source is given by:
(CO2) = (CO2)o [((Fc To) / Ma) + 1]
where:
(CO2)o = historic atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration = 275 ppmv
Fc = mass flow rate of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere from combustion of fossil fuels
To = exponential decay time constant of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
Ma = historic mass of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

Numerical evaluation of this equation using the 2004 value of Fc of:
Fc = 3.683 X 10^13 kg / year
and the calculated values:
Ma = 220.89 X 10^10 tonnes of CO2
and
To = 35.984 years
gives:
(CO2) = 440.0 ppmv
The local atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration near sources of carbon dioxide such as coal fuelled electricity generation stations and major cities will be substantially higher.

The value of Fc that will cause the atmospheric CO2 concentration to double from its historic value of 275 ppmv to a new value of 550 ppmv is given by:
(Fc To) / Ma = 1
or
Fc = Ma / To
= (220.89 X 10^10 tonnes CO2) / 35.984 years
= 6.138 X 10^10 tonnes CO2 / year

The temperature increase due to global warming is already causing major ecological changes and will likely cause massive human population migration away from equitorial countries.

Global warming also causes net heat absorption by the oceans. This heat absorption is higher in polar regions because where the ocean surface temperature is less than 4 degrees C the ocean does not thermally stratify. In polar regions the net absorbed heat melts floating polar ice. Melting of old floating ice does not change the sea level. However, melting of the old floating ice belts around Greenland and Antarctica will allow super cooled glacial discharge streams from land borne ice to flow into the ocean. Such galcial discharge streams will cause a relatively rapid rise in sea level.

It is shown that the exponential decay time constant To of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is about:
To = 36 years.
Hence, if stopping combustion of fossil fuels is delayed until after the relatively rapid sea level rise commences, the relatively rapid sea level rise will continue for about 36 years.
The only way to mitigate the height of this sea level rise is to stop use of fossil fuels now in order to allow the atmospheric CO2 concentration to decay before the relatively rapid sea level rise process commences.

Canada and Ontario have had a succession of elected governments that claim that they will address global warming but in fact have done and are doing nothing substantial. There is total lack of recognition as to the immensity of the problem.

In October 2003 a Liberal government was elected in Ontario on a platform of closing Ontario's coal fired electricity generation by 2007. This government totally failed to implement that promise. This government did not take any tangible steps to relieve the electricity supply problem by constructing new electricity transmission lines to areas where large amounts of non-fossil fuel power are readily available. Worse, this government put in place senior executives at the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) who have little comprehension of the scope of the problem of carbon dioxide related warming and who have executed and are continuing to execute contracts committing Ontario to large scale use of fossil fuels for electricity generation for at least 20 more years. Extricating Ontario from these contractual obligations will be extremely expensive.

The only way to remedy the carbon dioxide problem is to make immediate and massive investments in nuclear power, hydro power, wind power and related electricity transmisson, energy storage and distributed control equipment. The time for studies, environmental assessments, endless public consultations and other delaying tactics is over. It is now time for rapid and decisive action to mitigate the consequences of past folly.

The use of fossil fuels for electricity generation, comfort heating and vehicle propulsion applications must be abandoned. Fossil fuels must be replaced by hydro, wind and nuclear power with electro-chemical energy storage, pumped hydraulic energy storage, thermal energy storage and biofuel energy storage, together with behaviour changing electricity rates and control systems that match electricity generation to the electricity load.

Political, environmental, regulatory and religious leaders have yet to come to terms with this new reality. Even partial replacement of fossil fuels by biofuels will require a major reduction in the world's human population due to insufficient arable land and irrigation water.

One of the blunt realities of closing fossil fuel electricity generation is that the undepreciated capital investment in fossil fuel electricity generation equipment must to be written off. Such writeoffs lead to substantial electricity rate increases to end users. It is crazy for Ontario to be spending, as it is now, several million dollars per day for construction of new natural gas fuelled electricity generation. This is an issue that existing politicians and their lackeys seem unable to face.

The average temperature increase caused by excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which is amplified by an accompanying increase in average atmospheric water vapor concentration, affects winter recreation, winter roads, mountain snow packs, fresh water availability, food production, biofuel production, air conditioning, sea level and population migration.

The analysis of the temperature increase and net heat capture rate triggered by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is based on fundamental physics with no climatic model assumptions. The incident solar radiation data was recorded from 1978 to 2007 by multiple satellites. The infrared thermal emission spectrum of the whole Earth was recorded by the NASA Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft in November 1996. The average planetary albedo was obtained from astronomical observations of the moon. The ground level temperature data over the 40 year period 1965 to 2005 was obtained from Environment Canada. The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was obtained from measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The bicarbonate ion concentration in the oceans was obtained by conventional quantitative chemical analysis done in both the UK and the USA. Other satelite and laboratory data are presented for explanatory and confirmation purposes.

The practical public policies that must be implemented to prevent further global warming are presented. These policies are dictated by the laws of physics. There is no room for political compromise.

OBJECT:
The object of this web site is to present climate change related information in a manner that is understandable, incontestable and suitable for forming the basis of public policy with respect to energy and environmental matters. The technical information is at a level that undergraduate physics students should be able to comprehend.

GLOBAL WARMING:
Global warming is the increase in average atmospheric temperature over dry land that results from a world wide increase in average atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration or a decrease in planetary albedo. The increase in carbon dioxide concentration that is responsible for much of global warming is usually measured at a remote place such as Mauna Loa, Hawaii that is far from any significant man made source of carbon dioxide.

LOCAL WARMING:
Local warming is the increase in the local average atmospheric temperature over dry land that results from a local increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration or a local decrease in albedo. In regions without ice or snow local warming tends to be greatest in proximity to carbon dioxide sources such as fossil fueled power stations, traffic in major cities, building heating systems and carbon dioxide emitting industrial processes. Proximity to stratified open water allows the average atmospheric water vapor concentration to increase with the local CO2 concentration, amplifying CO2 related warming. In polar regions there are additional local changes in the upper atmospheric ozone concentration that significantly affect albedo in the ultra violet range.

CONCLUSIONS:
The temperature increase observed in Toronto during the period 1965 to 2005 was almost entirely due to an increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration over the Greater Toronto Area. There is theoretical potential for some winter warming due to melting of snow and ice, but the experimental data indicates that this effect is relatively insignificant in Toronto.

The main conclusion is that combustion of fossil carbon is no longer a viable primary energy source.

THREATS POSED BY LOCAL AND GLOBAL WARMING:
Climate change due to local and global warming presents immediate and longer term threats to much of mankind. Immediate threats are increased electricity requirements for air conditioning, diminished mountain snowpacks for supplying fresh water for agriculture during the dry seasons, increased requirements for irrigation water due to increased evaporation and competition for irrigation water and arable land between food and biofuel producers. A longer term threat that must now be addressed is a future increase in sea level. All of these threats will contribute to global starvation.

LITIGATION AND CONFLICT CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING:
One of the problems related to local and global warming is that the fossil carbon dioxide emitted by one party diffuses through the atmosphere and causes climate changes and hardship to other parties that do not emit significant amounts of fossil carbon dioxide and do not derive any benefit from the emitting party.

It may not be long before parties that are damaged by global warming seek compensation from or retribution against parties that cause global warming. The day of class action law suits or terrorist attacks against electricity generator personnel or transmission lines radiating from major fossil fuelled electricity generators may not be far away. Even if litigation and terrorism can be contained, massive human migration from equitorial regions to more temperate regions will be impossible to prevent. Such massive population movements will lead to conflicts related to land, fresh water, food supply and infrastructure.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

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This web page last updated December 7, 2009.