CONSEQUENCES

OF LOCAL AND GLOBAL WARMING

By Charles Rhodes, Xylene Power Ltd.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

OBVIOUS CONSEQUENCES:
For many middle aged Canadians the most obvious impact of the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is diminished skiing and outdoor skating. From 1965 to 2005 the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased 18.4%. There was an accompanying increase in atmospheric water vapor concentration. The 2.44 degree C increase in annual average temperature that occurred in the Greater Toronto Area between 1965 to 2005 almost eliminated natural outdoor ice skating. There is a pronounced increased summer electricity consumption due to higher summer temperatures which increase the air conditioning load.

Increasing the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration from 275 ppmv to 550 ppmv (twice the historic norm) causes a global warming increase in atmospheric temperature of 2.923 degrees C. Due to local warming the corresponding projected temperature increase in Toronto is about:
(2.44 C / .712 C) X 2.923 C = 10.02 degrees C above the historic norm.

INCREASE IN SNOW LINE ALTITUDE:
An world wide increase in average atmospheric temperature of 2.923 degrees C with a constant albedo will cause the snow line altitude to increase by about 341 m.
References:
Graph of Temperature versus Height,
Properties of Air vs Altitude.
However, the increased snow line altitude reduces the local albedo which further increases the temperature and hence further increases the snow line altitude. This problem is magnified by a further increase in temperature due to an increase in average atmospheric water vapor concentration. The increase in snowline altitude has already devastated the ski industry in both North America and Europe.

FARMING AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION:
The loss of fresh water storage on mountains due to an increased snow line altitude and depletion of lakes and aquifers during dry seasons due to increased evaporation are already devastating agriculture and livestock production in countries such as Kenya, that do not have major dams and sophisticated irrigation infrastructure. There are indications that food production in the US southwest will also soon be at risk. Snow, in addition to holding water itself, keeps the ground underneath it frozen. This ground is usually saturated with rain in the autumn before the ground freezes. The loss of fresh water storage associated with a substantial snowline altitude increase is disasterous for both farmers and livestock producers. Both categories of food producers rely on the snowpack feeding rivers, lakes and aquifers to provide critically needed fresh water late in the dry season. Addressing this problem will require many billions of dollars in capital for construction of fresh water reservoirs. The agricultural problems are compounded by the need to commit a large fraction of the agricultural output to biofuel production.

There are already massive crop failures and livestock production failures due to fresh water shortages arising from increased evaporation. If the majority of fossil fuel use is not stopped almost immediately, much of the present younger generation will perish from starvation or from food shortage related conflict.

AIR CONDITIONING:
A global warming temperature increase of 2.923 degrees C will greatly increase the electricity requirements for air conditioning. In addition to meeting greater sensible and latent heat loads, mechanical cooling systems must run much longer because the temperature at night will not drop enough to permit free cooling. Furthermore, local warming in urban centers will further increase local temperatures two to three fold.

DESERT FORMATION:
The increase in global average ground level temperature causes more evaporation from dry land, leading to formation of deserts.

RISING SEA LEVEL:
Warming of the polar oceans causes melting of floating ice. Melting of floating ice does not change the sea level. However, melting of floating ice decreases the local albedo which in turn accelerates warming of the polar oceans. The heat of fusion relating to the phase change between ice and water prevents the polar ocean temperature rising as long as floating ice is present.

Melting of the floating ice bordering Greenland and Antarctica has consequences that may affect many people now living. When the floating ice bordering these land masses melts, there will be nothing preventing the high pressure fluid under the Greenland and Antarctic glaciers from flowing into the adjacent oceans. In the ocean this fluid will reform into ice but will keep melting due to the net absorbed heat caused by global warming. This mechanism will cause continuing loss of land borne ice which in turn will cause a relatively rapid rise in sea level that will continue for at least 36 years after use of fossil fuels is completely stopped. This rise in sea level will inundate low level countries, parts of most existing seaport cities and farms located on river deltas.

MARINE ECOLOGY:
In recent years coral reefs have exhibited bleaching as the coral life dies when the ocean water temperature exceeds 85 degrees F (29.5 degrees C). Many other marine species are potentially affected by high ocean temperatures and by changes in the acidity of ocean water caused by the ocean taking into solution excess carbon dioxide from combustion of fossil carbon. Each ton of fossil carbon burned ultimately converts 8.3 tons of insoluble calcium carbonate (limestone) from the ocean floor and from marine shells into water soluble calcium bicarbonate. This consumption of calcium carbonate is having a profound effect on marine ecology.

A matter of great concern is what happens as the supply of exposed insoluble calcium carbonate in the oceans is depleted. If there is insufficient exposed calcium carbonate the oceans soon saturate with disolved carbon dioxide, so that carbon dioxide is no longer removed from the atmosphere. Under these circumstances the half life of excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere approaches infinity and the rate of increase of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration approximately doubles. Hence the time frame available for taking remedial action falls by about a factor of two.

OVERALL CONSEQUENCES:
The combined recreational, agricultural, livestock, comfort, sea level and sea food consequences of ongoing combustion of fossil carbon will cause major human population migrations, which may by themselves lead to many difficulties.

VIOLENCE:
Many people, both in Canada and abroad, are facing loss of their life savings, loss of farm or ranch production capacity, loss of sea food, inundation of their land or starvation as a result of the gluttonous ongoing use of fossil fuels by North American electricity generators, Canadian tar sands oil producers and Norh American vehicle owners. Both electricity generators and oil producers have alternative non-fossil fuel energy sources available to them at a higher cost. If the electricity generators, oil producers and their regulators do not voluntarily cease use of fossil fuels, their executives may soon become assassination targets. The message that Canadian and American electricity generators and oil producers should not be doing things that deprive others of critical resources will likely be driven home with bullets if the responsible executives fail to act voluntarily.

OPA and OEB personnel that authorize further long term use of fossil fuels may in effect be signing their own death warrants. The threat is not just Arab countries. The threatened countries include but are not limited to the UK, Netherlands, Italy, Bangladesh and the Philipines, all of which are facing near term multi-billion dollar expenditures to prevent inundation due to rising sea levels. The threat includes North American owners of ski resorts, farms and ranches. Many parties that own land on the Fraser delta in British Columbia, in Florida and on the US gulf coast are also at risk due to the rising sea level.

FOSSIL CARBON EMISSIONS TAX:
The problems triggered by local and global warming will continue until governments world wide accept that the extra costs caused by global warming exceed the cost savings achieveable via combustion of fossil fuels, and act on that information by imposing fossil carbon emissions taxes that are sufficiently high to prevent primary energy generation by combustion of fossil carbon. A reasonable estimate of the size of the fossil carbon emissions tax required to prevent use of fossil carbon for primary energy generation is about $200 per emitted CO2 tonne.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

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This web page last updated December 7, 2009