XYLENE POWER LTD.

ENERGY VISION

By Charles Rhodes, Xylene Power Ltd.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

INTRODUCTION:
This web page proposes a new energy vision that does not rely on fossil fuels for electricity generation or vehicle propulsion and which reduces fossil fuel usage for water heating and space heating.

THE IMMEDIATE THREAT:
In February 2008 the consumer's cost of home heating oil in Ontario reached $.999 / litre plus GST. At that price heat derived from electric resistance heating was less expensive than heat derived from combustion of oil. If the furnace efficiency is 85% the cost of a kWt-h derived from combustion of oil is:
($.999 / litre) X (1 litre / 38.2 X 10^6 J X .85) X (1 j / Wt-s) X (1000 Wt / kWt) X (3600 s / h)
= $.11076 / kWt-h + HST

The corresponding cost of a marginal metered kWh of electricity from Hydro One as charged to low density residential customers without TOU rates is:
[(distribution) + (debt retirement)] + 1.092[(energy) + (transmission) + (regulation)]
= [$.03245 / kWh + $.0070 / kWh] + 1.092[$.075 / kWh + $.01014/ kWh + $.0062 / kWh]
= $.03945/ kWh + $.09974328 / kWh
= $.1392 / kWh + HST

If the price of heating oil in Ontario keeps rising with respect to the cost of off-peak electricity there will likely be a rapid conversion of off-peak rural heating from oil to electricity. The impact of that conversion can be estimated as follows:
According to NRCan the annual heating oil consumption in Ontario is about:
1,068 X 10^6 litres.
Environment Canada degree day data shows that on a cold winter day about 1% of this amount is consumed, so the oil consumption on a cold day is about:
.01 X 1068 X 10^6 litres = 1068 X 10^4 litres/ day.
In one hour on that cold day the oil consumption is:
1068 X 10^4 litres / day X 1 day / 24 h = 44.5 X 10^4 litres / h

The electric power needed to replace that oil with electric resistance heat is:
44.5 X 10^4 litres / h X 38.2 X 10^6 J / litre X .85 X 1 W-s / J X 1 kW / 1000 W X 1 h / 3600 s
= 401.36 X 10^4 kW
= 4013.6 MW

One approach would be for the OEB to increase the stranded debt repayment rate sufficiently to keep the cost of off-peak electricity level with the cost of heating oil. That strategy would give a few years to allow construction of new non-fossil fuel generation to catch up with the electricity demand.

THE LONGER TERM THREAT:
The longer term issue is that mankind simply cannot allow combustion of fossil fuels to continue at the present rate. These fuels release carbon dioxide that is accumulating in the atmosphere. This carbon dioxide is causing increasing global warming that is leading to world wide agricultural failure and mass starvation. Halting further global warming requires an immediate world wide reduction in the use of fossil fuels of about 34% with respect to the 2004 world wide fossil fuel consumption. If the present Canadian and Ontario politicians are unwilling or unable to effectively deal with global warming, then as a simple matter of survival the Canadian and Ontario voters must replace them. The world is looking to Canada and Ontario to take a leadership position with respect to meeting the challenge of global warming.

Even if we could totally stop combustion of fossil fuels today, it would still take at least 25 years for half of the excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to be absorbed by the oceans, allowing a return to 1965 atmospheric conditions. If we fail to promptly reduce combustion of fossil fuels now, much of mankind will likely die from starvation, disease or related conflict.

We cannot in an ongoing way burn forest products for industrial heating unless there is a mechanism for returning to the soil phosphorus and trace elements that are essential for plant growth. This recylcing of soil elements is practical for agricultural carbohydrate production but is much more difficult for forest production. To further enhance plant growth we need nitrogen fertilizers, production of which requires ammonia.

These are issues of basic chemistry that many "environmentalists" have yet to learn.

REMEDIAL ACTION:
If we are serious about stopping global warming human beings MUST CEASE COMBUSTION OF FOSSIL CARBON FOR PRIMARY ENERGY GENERATION. To achieve this objective there must be alternative energy sources, enforceable international agreements and effective population control.

The so called "cap and trade" methodology is in reality an elaborate form of fuel rationing that is difficult or impossible to enforce internationally. A fossil carbon tax leveled on primary producers is much easier, much less expensive and much more practical to enforce. In the case of parties such as manufacturers of plastic resins and road surfacing adhesives, that do not burn much of the fossil carbon that they purchase, the onus is on them to prove to regulatory authorities the fraction of their fossil carbon purchases that is not converted into carbon dioxide.

Any process for replacing the liquid and gaseous fossil fuels that we presently use for transportation and general purpose heating, without use of fossil carbon, involves large amounts of energy and heat that can only be obtained from electricity or from nuclear processes. There are a variety of non-nuclear non-fossil fuel methods for generating electricity, and to the extent that these methods are available they are preferred over nuclear electricity because nuclear electricity is expensive and results in considerable reject heat being dumped into lakes, rivers or the atmosphere. However, in many circumstances there is no practical subsititute for nuclear generated electricity.

Another key issue is that there are a range of important industrial processes, such as ammonia production and reforming of hydrocarbons into liquid fuels, that require high temperatures. Realizing these temperatures without combustion of carbon requires combustion of hydrogen. Efficient production of that hydrogen without CO2 emission requires sodium cooled nuclear reactors.

Disposal of the used fuel from sodium cooled nuclear reactors is best done in a CANDU nuclear reactor. Hence we need a balanced nuclear reactor fleet.

ASSUMPTIONS:
1. By the year 2025 governments throughout the world will have accepted that the world is over heating and will have a political mandate to take corrective action.

2. Evaporation of lakes will convert the dissolved calcium bicarbonate in the lakes into calcium carbonate, releasing yet more carbon dioxide gas. This carbon dioxide plus carbon dioxide released from ongoing combustion of fossil carbon will cause the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to further increase.

3. Much of the arable land that presently relies on winter snowpacks for summer irrigation will become desert. In the process this land will release additional CO2 to the atmosphere.

4. Many people will be forced to move due to agricultural and livestock failures caused by loss of fresh water seasonal storage in mountain snowpacks.

5. Many important commercial species will be driven to extinction by runaway pestilences. The rate of temperature change is too great for biosystems to adapt. eg. Several tree types in Canada are being wiped out by insects, which do not die off in mild winters.

6. The floating sea ice bordering Greenland and Antarctica will melt. One of the fuctions of the floating sea ice is to contain the land borne ice to prevent the land borne ice flowing into the surrounding oceans. The released land borne ice will flow into the oceans causing a substantial increase in sea level. The rate of sea level rise from this process may sharply increase from its present value of a few mm / year to several cm / year. Geological records show that the sea level could easily rise by as much as 6 m over the coming century. Low elevation countries such as the Netherlands and Bangladesh will likely be inundated by the rising sea level coupled with extreme storms. The populations of presently populous river deltas and coastal cites will be forced to move.

7. Over a twenty year period 100 million people could be displaced by the aforementioned mechanisms.

8. The net Canadian immigration rate will likely increase to about 0.5 million persons per annum so that Canada can absorb a reasonable fraction of the displaced population. An additional incentive for this immigration increase will be a change in the demographics required to ease funding of Canada's medicare system. Approximately half (250,000 per year) of these immigrants will likely settle in Ontario causing a 2% per annum population increase. This population increase is twice the population increase assumed by the OPA.

NEW ENERGY VISION:
1. In order to attempt to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide tax laws will be enacted world wide to make combustion of fossil carbon for primary energy generation prohibitively expensive.

2. The Ontario electricity system will be faced with two major challenges:
a.The net immigration rate and hence the rate of population growth will likely be much larger than anticipated by the OPA in 2006. Even without global warming a larger immigration rate will be required to sustain the medicare system in Ontario as post WWII baby boomers become elderly;
b. The electricity system, in addition to meeting the load categories that exist in 2006, will also have to provide much of the energy required for space heating, potable water heating and automobile propulsion.

3. Buildings in rural areas that do not have access to natural gas will almost certainly shift off-peak heating from oil to some form of electric heating. Electic resistance heating is the least capital intensive but most expensive to operate.

4. Single family residences and similar isolated buildings will eventually adopt ground source heat pumps to reduce their space heating and potable water heating related electricity requirements by about a factor of three as compared to electric resistive heating. The potable water heating may involve a combination of solar heating, off peak electric resistive heating and ground source heat pump heating.

5. Large multi-residential buildings and other similar buildings (hospitals, hotels, etc) will likely use Micro Fusion or another nuclear heating process to reduce their space heating and potable water heating related electricity requirements by a factor of 10 as compared to electric resistive heating. These same buildings can reduce their mechanical cooling related electricity load by a factor of two through the use of Micro Fusion.

QUANTIFICATION OF ADDITIONAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION REQUIREMENTS:
1. Assume that the space and domestic hot water heat required per person is 6000 kWh thermal per year (typical for existing well insulated apartment suites).

2.Assume that half of the population lives in large multi-residential buildings. Then the average electricity requirement for residential heating is:
[(6000 / 10) + (6000 / 3)] / 2 = 1300 kWh /person-year.
For an anticipated Ontario population of 15 million people in the year 2025 this extra average electricity load relating to heating is projected to be:
1300 kWh / person-year X 15 X 10^6 persons /( 8766 h / year)
= 2.22 X 10^6 kW.

3. The dominant automotive technology will likely be plug-in series hybrid vehicles with rechargeable batteries and bio-fuel internal combustion engines for range extension. The biofuel provides no net energy because it requires the equivalent of its own energy for production. The biofuel is concentrated using heat from the Micro Fusion process.

4. On average each vehicle directly or indirectly draws 10 kWh per day from the electricity grid. This estimate is based on present plug-in hybrid vehicle performance, each vehicle going 110 km per day.

5. Assume that in 2025 there are 10 million automobiles in Ontario. Then the average electricity load increase due to vehicles is:
10 kWh /day-vehicle X 10 X 10^6 vehicles = 100 X 10^6 kWh / day.
Thus the average grid power requirement for powering automobiles in 2025 is about:
100 X 10^6 kWh / day X 1 day / 24 h = 4.17 X 10^6 kW.

6.Thus the total increase in the average electricity load due to displacement of fossil fuels for heating and automotive purposes is estimated at (2.22 + 4.17) X 10^6 kW = 6.39 X 10^6 kW.

7. Allowing for a 80% availability factor of generation plant gives an additional daily average generation plant requirement of:
6.39 X 10^6 kW / .80 = 7.98 X 10^6 kW = 7,980 MW

8. Allowing for +/- 25% seasonal load variation increases the required additional generation capacity to about 10,000 MW. This additional generation plant requirement could be met by a combination of distributed non-fossil fuel generation, central nuclear reactors and out of province hydraulic generation. There is no possibility of meeting this increased load from conservation.

9. Almost every building will have a peak demand controller to assist in maintaining a high load factor. The sheddable loads will include charging of vehicle propulsion batteries, charging of stationary energy storage systems, off-peak hot water heating, off-peak ice making for comfort cooling, clothes dryers, dishwashers, etc.

10. Some vehicle battery charging will be under central dispatch control to regulate grid voltage and to match the electrical load to the available electrical generation capacity. The electrical generation capacity is anticipated to be highly variable due to a large component of wind generation. Some of this variability will be filtered by stationary energy storage systems.

11. Pumped energy storage between Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will be used to filter the weekly and seasonal variations in wind energy generation and run-of-river hydraulic generation. Behind the meter electrochemical energy storage will be used at wind generator sites to more efficiently utilize electricity transmission.

12. If implementation of Micro Fusion is delayed the required amount of additional electrical generation approximately doubles because Micro Fusion is required to reduce the heating/cooling related electricity consumption of large buildings and is also required to economically produce biofuel for vehicles.

13. The estimated extra generation requirement of 10,000 MW is in addition to the extra generation that is anticipated by the OPA in its September 7, 2006 load forecast.

GENERATION TYPES:
In the non-fossil fuel future the principal generation types are:
Run-of-river hydraulic:
The primary role of run-of-river hydraulic is to displace nuclear base load generation to the extent that it is practical to do so.

Nuclear:
The primary role of nuclear generation is to meet the remaining base load. Service of nuclear generation should be scheduled to assist in meeting the seasonal load variation.

Hydraulic plus daily energy storage:
The primary role of hydraulic generation in combination with a dam that can provide daily energy storage is to provide (1/3) base load generation and (2/3) daily load following generation.

Wind plus Daily Electro-Chemical Energy Storage:
The primary role of wind plus daily electrochemical energy storage is to provide a mix of daily load following generation and base load generation. A secondary role of electrochemical energy storage is grid voltage and frequency stabilization.

Hydraulic plus weekly or seasonal energy storage:
The primary role of hydraulic generation with weekly or seasonal energy storage is to provide load following generation. A secondary role is to make up for shortfalls in the other generation types. A tertiary role is to operate as pumped storage to absorb excess energy generated by wind during times of low grid demand.

ENERGY STORAGE:
An important issue is that during the hottest days of the summer the daily average run-of-river hydraulic generation and the daily average wind generation are both at seasonal minimums whereas the daily average grid load is at a seasonal maximum. Hence the capacity of the hydraulic generation with energy storage must be sufficient to meet the difference between the grid peak load and the grid peak coincident supply from other forms of generation.

In Ontario the issue is that the water flow from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario during peak demand periods on a hot summer day must be several times the average water flow. Conversely, at night during a low load time in April or September, when the wind is strong, it will be necessary to stop the Niagara river and pump water upwards from Lake Ontario to Lake Erie to usefully absorb excess wind power. There may be implications and constraints related to changes in the levels of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. Note that the average water flow from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario must remain unchanged to keep the St. Lawrence River flow constant downstream from Cornwall. This constant flow is required to maintain navigation through the St. Lawrence Seaway. In effect it is contemplated that Lake Ontario and Lake Erie together will comprise a giant pumped storage system that can be used for daily, weekly and seasonal load following.

A key issue is implementation of a daily load factor dependent electricity rate structure. Without such a rate structure there is insufficient economic incentive to store energy when electricity is plentiful and to minimize grid load at peak demand times. These measures are necessary to reduce the cost of the transmission/distribution grid which otherwise will escalate rapidly due to the low average capacity factor of most renewable generators and the increased distance of these generators from the load.

SUMMARY:
1. The September 7, 2006 OPA load forecast does not take into account the electricity load increase that is necessary to limit global warming. The principal components of this electricity load increase are:
a. A 2% per annum increase in population;
b. Displacement of fossil fuels for space heating and potable water heating;
c. Displacement of fossil fuels for vehicle propulsion;
d. Increased use of mechanical cooling to combat local and global warming.

2.At present the OPA and the Government of Ontario are both pretending that local and global warming do not exist, in spite of abundant evidence to the contrary. Neither organization is taking serious leadership on this issue.

3. Meeting the projected electricity load related to displacing automotive, space and water heating fossil fuels in Ontario will require at least 10,000 MW of electricity generation capacity above and beyond the amount of generation projected by the OPA in its September 7, 2006 load forecast.

OBSERVATIONS:
1. The problem of rising sea levels manifests itself at coastal cities around the world. The flooding of New Orleans was but a foretaste of what is to come.
 
2. This web site identifies the electricity rate changes that are necessary in order to make environmentally acceptable distributed electricity generation in Ontario economically viable, thus reducing the required amount of central generation capacity.
 
3. The present Ontario Liberal government has shown itself to be unwilling to face the reality that replacing fossil fuelled electricity generation with any mix of environmentally acceptable electricity generation entails a substantial increase in the price of electricity.
 
4. The present Canadian Conservative government, which reflects the near term interests of oil producers, has had the opportunity to implement an effective fossil carbon emissions tax but has failed to do so.
 
5. The present governments of Ontario and Canada have both shown themselves to be unwilling to meet the challenges of global warming. Consequently this author does not anticipate any significant improvement in Canadian carbon dioxide emissions or the Ontario electricity supply until after the voters implement changes in these governments.
 
6. The delay associated with implementing these changes will simply aggravate existing problems. The consequences of Canadian and Ontario inaction are exceedingly grave because other nations, collectively with more than 100 times the population of Canada, are emulating Canadian and Ontario government energy policies.
 
7. The greater efficiency of energy usage by the EU countries, UK, USA, Japan, China, India and Brazil is leaving Ontario's manufacturers in an uncompetitive position. Much work is necessary to catch up. There is no alternative but for Ontario to increase electricity prices to encourage energy efficiency and to reduce the carrying cost of electricity debt.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

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This web page last updated July 14, 2010