CLIMATE CHANGE

PERSONAL IMPACT

By Charles Rhodes, Xylene Power Ltd.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

MOTIVATION:
The science of local and global warming presented on this website does not rely on my personal observations. However, my personal observations motivated me to present the scientific material on this website for use by the engineering community.

I present my personal observations in the hope that they will motivate others to properly and promptly address the problems related to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere.

PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS OF LOCAL AND GLOBAL WARMING:
I was born in 1949 and grew up in North Vancouver, British Columbia. Our family home was on the side of a mountain above the winter snow line. From 1955 to 1965 I skied every winter. Now, 50 years later, there is almost no skiing in North Vancouver. There is no snow.

One summer, about 1961, I visited Moraine Lake, near Banff, with my parents. At that time there was a glacier that came down the adjacent mountains to the lake. There were chunks of ice floating in the lake water near the foot of the glacier. There was a stream of icy fluid flowing out from under the foot of the glacier. About 1991 I returned to Moraine Lake with my own children. During my 30 year absence the glacier at Moraine Lake had disappeared.

In 1965 I visited the Columbia ice fields in the Rocky Mountains with my parents. At that time the Athabasca glacier came down almost to the Banff to Jasper highway. At that time there was a stream of icy fluid flowing out from under the bottom of the glacier. However, there were no obvious melt pools or other similar signs of melting on top of the glacier. About 1991 I returned to the Columbia Ice Fields. During my 26 year absence the glacier had receded about 1 km and had lost much of its volume. There was a river of icy fluid flowing out from under the foot of the glacier. References: Columbia Icefield, Jasper National Park of Canada, Columbia Icefield and Athabasca Glacier Data.

During the 1960s the Arctic ocean passage north of mainland Canada was permanently iced over and was impassible to commercial shipping. Only nuclear submarines and heavy duty ice breakers could get through. Now, 40 years later, the Arctic ocean passage north of mainland Canada is open to ordinary ocean freighters much of the year. There is almost no ice.

In 1969 I moved to Toronto. At that time Toronto had over 40 outdoor natural ice rinks. During the 1970s I often ice skated outdoors as a social activity. Now, 30 years later, there is no natural outdoor ice skating in Toronto. The climate is not cold enough to sustain natural ice.

In 1986 we moved our residence to Sharon, Ontario. We have a natural spring fed pond. Every year from about 1988 to 1995 we skated on that pond. We can no longer skate on that pond. The ice, when it forms, is no longer thick enough for safe skating.

Every year from 1986 to 2005 we had a white Christmas at our home in Sharon, Ontario. However, in 2006 there was no snow at Christmas time.

During the 1980s I became aware of the increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the earth's atmosphere and the long term corrosive effects of the increased carbonic acid content of rain water on the reinforcing bars of concrete that is exposed to rain water. This issue is particularly important in the design of the balconies of high rise buildings, overhead roadways and bridges. In 1992 I brought this issue to the attention of the Ontario Energy Board.

In 2006 I plotted graphs of average annual temperature and average summer temperature measured at the Toronto International Airport versus year and found that during the period 1965 to 2005 the average annual temperature had increased 2.44 degrees C and the average summer temperature had increased about 2.7 degrees C. The trend of these graphs is for a continuing increase in average temperatures.

In 2008 I determined that part of this temperature increase is due to a world wide increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and part of this temperature increase is due to an increase in atmospheric water vapor concentration.

IRRIGATION:
I have visited many places in North America where the agricultural output is constrained by the available supply of fresh water. Increasing the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration increases soil evaporation and hence increases the amount of irrigation water required to maintain agricultural output. In 2008 I developed a simple method of quantifying this increased irrigation requirement.

In practise, because the irrigation water supply is limited, an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration reduces cultivated land area and hence reduces agricultural output. This issue has huge consequences on the world supply of agricultural carbohydrates for food, clothing, construction materials and biofuels.

RISING SEA LEVEL:
General Reference: Sea Level Rise
During the years 2006 and 2007 there were many news reports relating to rapid loss of floating ice from the Canadian Arctic. Melting of floating ice does not cause a change in sea level. However, the melting of floating ice is a warning of future rapid melting of land borne ice caps that will cause a substantial rise in sea level.

World wide sea level measurements show that from 1910 to 1990 the average sea level rose about 1.9 mm /year. This sea level increase is attributed to a combination of melting of land borne mountain glaciers and thermal expansion of the oceans. Satelite measurements since 1993 show acceleration in the rate of rise of sea level to about 3 mm / year.

The sea level is of particular concern to coastal cities such as London, UK. The lower Thames River, which flows through London, is close to sea level and rises with the tides. To protect London from flooding there is a man-made movable structure known as the Thames Barrier. In late August 2006 I visited the Thames Barrier. I saw that the high tide mark, inside the Thames Barrier, is already close to threatening the City of London.

From the point of view of coastal cities, the major concern is loss of land borne ice from Greenland and Antarctica. The glacier discharge from the bottom edge of this land borne ice will raise the sea level. Volume measurements indicate that complete loss of the Greenland and South Polar ice caps would cause a 73 m increase in sea level. Even if only 4% of this ice mass flows into the ocean, the resulting 3 m rise in sea level would inundate many coastal cities, especially those built on islands and river deltas.

My observations of shrinking mountain glaciers indicate that the dominant mechanism by which land borne glaciers lose mass is via fluid flow out the bottom. The thickness of ice in a major glacier causes a high pressure near the bottom of the glacier. When ice is subject to a high pressure it becomes a low friction fluid. (That is why ice skates work. Ice skates cause sufficient localized pressure that the ice directly underneath them becomes a fluid allowing the skater almost frictionless movement.) If the fluid pressure near the bottom of a glacier is released due to melting at the bottom edge of the glacier, the icy fluid escapes and the glacier rapidly shrinks. The glacier discharge fluid, which consists of a suspension of small ice crystals in supercooled water also carries with it chunks of ice. When the glacier discharge fluid contacts the ocean it either warms to become liquid water or forms new floating ice. In either case it raises the sea level.

The projected rate of glacier mass loss can be quantified via the available heat flux and the heat of fusion of water. This glacier mass loss will have immense practical consequences in terms of a future rapid increase in sea level as the glaciers on Greenland and Antarctica shrink. Up until now these major land borne glaciers have maintained their size due to the presence of a surrounding ring of floating ice that has prevented the high pressure fluid under these glaciers from escaping.

Sedimentary evidence shows that within the last 100,000 years ago the sea level was on several occasions about 3 m higher than its present level. Energy balance calculations show that another sea level rise of about 3 m will occur again in the very near future unless human beings immediately drastically reduce their fossil carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere.

THE ENGINEERING ISSUES:
I have set out on this website quantitative physical explanations for the increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and atmospheric temperature. I have quantified the effect of increased dry ground atmospheric temperature on irrigation. I have provided historical data relating to the past increases in sea level and calculations relating to an anticipated future increase in sea level. I have quantified the objectives that must be met by fuel producers, electricity utilities, engineers and taxation authorities to control the future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. There is no room for compromise if the consequences of further increases in: atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, dry ground temperature, irrigation evaporation and heat absorption by the oceans are to be avoided. These consequences include but are not limited to massive human mortality from starvation, disease and war.

THE POLITICAL ISSUES:
During the period 1985 to 2005 there was a lot of political talk but little action on the issue of global warming. The blunt reality is that there are few elected politicians that are willing to prohibit use of fossil fuels for primary energy generation.

However, the sleeper issues are global starvation and the anticipated rise in sea level. The economic costs of these problems dwarf the cost savings that can be achieved via continued combustion of fossil fuels. It is essential that elected politicians address the long term consequences of their decisions, not just the next election which is typically only two years away.

I wish every reader success in meeting both the engineering and the political challenges identified on this website. The measured ongoing increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is an early warning of major problems yet to come.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

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This web page last updated July 12, 2009.